Watching the Florida COVID Death Curve Fill In – PART 2

The COVID situation here in Florida continues to improve based on new case and hospital admission data.  Based on the fatalities curve — well, that is hard to say.  That was the subject of my diary from 9/22/2021.

In case you want a closer view of the title picture, here’s an embiggen link

I ended that diary thinking by this point the expected fatalities plateau implied from the new cases data would become more prominent — well, maybe it has, but not as strong as I had thought.  For the current “emerging plateau” graph I lowered the steps between data reports to 10 fatalities per day rather than 12; I also lowered the expected CFR for my Bedford curve from 1.82% to 1.74% (1/55 to 1/57). Still the emerging plateau seems to be getting harder to see…

A suggestion from the comments in my last diary was for me to look at the hospital admission data.  I was able to find it on the CDC site, but had to manually transcribe it.  To my surprise it seems that the admissions and new cases curves in this state are nearly coincident when scaled at 1:10…odd, but it seems to support my contention that most COVID tests here in Florida are being done once people are already quite ill.

I was tempted to write earlier in the week, but held off and instead tried again to model the data fill in process.  To do this I took the ratio between the reported 7 day moving average on the same days between data reports, and then averaged the differences by “day” (not date)…I got this series of curves:

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